Corona Virus Nags The S&P
Chaos Clinic for 2/21/2020
For nearly a month, the corona virus outbreak has nagged the S&P. This month long
24/7 hourly chart shows how that has played out.
On January 24th, 2020 ( a Friday) news broke that there was a new virus spreading in China. News
of the outbreak had been limited until then, but when the news broke world wide,
the S&P tanked from a high of 3337. Over the next week, prices declined into a
low of 3212.5, again on a Friday.
Over the weekend, the Chinese government realized that it had to act. It did, announcing
that it was injecting billions into the Chinese economy, quarantining millions, and
forbidding selling on the Chinese stock exchange. That launched a massive rally.
erasing the panic drop in just 5 days. That began the formation of a rising wedge pattern.
Rising Wedge patterns contain a form of Chaos Clamshell, one that is mostly bound within a triangle
as the wedge forms. With the aid a 36 hour EXMA, I have labled 7 moves. If that labling is correct
the rally of "hope that the virus is nothing to worry about" may be over.
I have also marked a few points where corona virus fears sparke decline. Move 4 and move 6 are two of them.
Move 6 came after Apple warned investors that the virus had disrupted their business, both on the
manufacturing and sales side. so first quarter profits could be hurt.
Move 7 came as Wall Street seemed to ignore this warning. Then overnight fears of the consequences of
the virus spreading outside of China sparked a sharp drop on Thursday, 2/20, That drop seems to have
signalled the end of the rising wedge..
George Soros has said that every bull or bear market comes with a story. In 2007-2009 the story
was the morgage crisis. Long before the October 2007 top, there were down days blamed on fears
of a morgage problem. Like swarming bees, the fear kept nagging the market periodically even
as it rose. Eventually. starting in October, 2007 ,the fears turned to panic as the market discovered
the flaws in the mortgage market. ending a crash into March 2009..
Today's fear may be more than the corona virus. It may just be adding to fears of a slowing
global economy. Those fears have been fueling a movement of money out of stocks into gold and silver,
as I have reported in prior Chaos Clinics. These are best traded with Exchange Traded Funds.
For more on my work, see Moneytide.com
2/21/2020 2:11:31 PM MT jbs****:: Al, thanks for the advice.
2/21/2020 1:46:30 PM MT Al****:: have a good weekend everyone
2/21/2020 1:45:01 PM MT Al****:: you need to be well rested, centered, and ready on the open; take one shot only; do not get into over reacting. Only two trade times today, so make only 0, 1, or 2 trades. Do not try to figure out red of green tides. Just take the times as vertical lines and trade the EXMAs.
2/21/2020 1:38:53 PM MT jbs****:: I learned a good lesson today. Don't trade when I am tired and don't trade with distractions. 10:01 Short on pull back, but by this time the green line was up. Broke even on trade. 10:27 Reentered short at 10:27 for +2 10:40 Bad trade, I shorted against the green tide. -8.25 12:24 Good setup, but set stoploss too close. -1.5 12:41 Short on pullback but again set stoploss to close -1.25 Net for the day -9
2/21/2020 1:34:29 PM MT Al****:: OK, long day; done.Thanks for coming. See you next week. Take some courses.
2/21/2020 1:31:15 PM MT Al****:: or not out 3333.5
2/21/2020 1:28:52 PM MT Al****:: looks like the last Tide time is a carry through
2/21/2020 1:26:59 PM MT Al****:: s3334.5
2/21/2020 1:22:21 PM MT Al****:: s3335 above the 110
2/21/2020 1:18:59 PM MT Al****:: s3337
2/21/2020 1:14:07 PM MT Al****:: 3338
2/21/2020 1:05:50 PM MT Al****:: stop could be moved to 3339
2/21/2020 12:59:35 PM MT Al****:: back from lunch - still working second trade
2/21/2020 12:37:20 PM MT Al****:: minor rally to 110 ; assuming sell about 3344, stop has small gain locked in so can wait
2/21/2020 12:24:17 PM MT Al****:: s2/s3 both about 3311 - once could place a buy stop at 3312
2/21/2020 12:17:28 PM MT Al****:: stop can be moved to 3342, just above the 220
2/21/2020 12:16:19 PM MT Al****:: to help me stay calm I often listen to R. Carlos Nakai Native American flute music
2/21/2020 11:46:19 AM MT Al****:: note that the Flash Boys have surrendered S1; one could lower stop to about 3345, just above the 220
2/21/2020 11:44:21 AM MT Al****:: note how the 110, 220, and 440 minute EXMAs have curled down
2/21/2020 11:34:51 AM MT Al****:: I've been reading an awesome book by Richard Wagamese, Embers It is about his morning meditations. I read one a day. He is a well known Ojibway author. All of his books are fantastic.
2/21/2020 11:30:22 AM MT Al****:: it's really about connecting to who you really are, your inner self, so you can trade un-detracted from all the noise and technocrap
2/21/2020 11:22:48 AM MT qq:: Thanks Al. So true going outside and focusing on God created things.
2/21/2020 11:18:29 AM MT Al****:: if you have been sitting staring at your computer screen, get up, go outside, and take a walk around the neighborhood. Focus not on all the man made stuff, but the trees, the grass, the sky, the clouds, the birds, and all the other things the Creator has made. Focus on the wonder of it all, and feel the energy of being a part of it.
2/21/2020 10:56:06 AM MT Al****:: as far as price targets, today is a wider range day, so 9 points may be too low - watching the pit prices may be better
2/21/2020 10:52:46 AM MT Al****:: then one has to figure out when to get out-The last trade time near the end of the day would probably be a good time
2/21/2020 10:51:45 AM MT qq:: Hello all. Al, I woke up early, but then about 9AM CST went back to bed and slept like Rip Van Winkle.
2/21/2020 10:50:48 AM MT Al****:: here the EXMAs help you set a stop-the rally hit the 220, which then turned down, So an initial stop above the high is reasonable
A "I want to stay short" stop could go at the 44o EXMA
2/21/2020 10:35:06 AM MT Al****:: the 3rd chart on the SPKISS page shows a sell by the bar coloring
2/21/2020 10:34:44 AM MT jbs****:: Shorted on EMA cross. Price appears to be continuing on the green moon tide.
2/21/2020 10:17:56 AM MT Al****:: the SPSunMoon chart shows some of the Market AstroPhysics behind yesterday and today, along with the rainbow of EXMAs
note how today's early drop was along the Mercury time line, got a second down on the Moon timeline, and now bounced up to the flat Venus /Earth fluxlines
sometimes they are helpful in understanding what is happening energetically
but for MoonTide trades I stick to just the trade times, the EXMAs, and the rules.
2/21/2020 9:08:25 AM MT Al****:: you are welcome Ted
2/21/2020 9:07:43 AM MT Al****:: took 12
2/21/2020 9:07:29 AM MT Ted:: Al, it was good/nice/kind/generous of you to note the trade indication at 7:42 this morning. Thanks.
2/21/2020 9:07:01 AM MT Al****:: back briefly; on MoonTide trade choice here is to lock in a profit of 3 with stop above the 220 minute EXMA or take 12 now
2/21/2020 8:07:37 AM MT Al****:: I'm taking a break now
2/21/2020 8:00:01 AM MT Al****:: pivot prices are found on the SP1 page -these are use by many computerized trading systems. Here some of the Flash Boys bought at S1
2/21/2020 7:54:49 AM MT Al****:: qq's early comment refers to the Daniel Chart found on the Secret page
The magenta star burts often marke very volatile days
2/21/2020 7:51:53 AM MT Al****:: qq: you were up VERY early :)
2/21/2020 7:48:41 AM MT Al****:: MoonTide trad stop could be moved to 3354 break even for a free trade
2/21/2020 7:46:54 AM MT Al****:: thanks GON
2/21/2020 7:46:24 AM MT Al****:: GLD has been goo for the past 18 months - I use the EFT itself
2/21/2020 7:44:54 AM MT gon:: Hi Al! Thanks for the AUX page article. Published at fxstreet.com, with many thanks!
2/21/2020 7:44:20 AM MT qq:: Glad I bought GLD call. Up strong
2/21/2020 7:42:27 AM MT Al****:: first MoonTide trade a 20/110 continuation sell near 3354 stop about 3362
2/21/2020 7:28:15 AM MT Al****::
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2/21/2020 7:06:55 AM MT jbs****:: Good morning
2/21/2020 7:02:14 AM MT jvj****:: Good morning everyone
2/21/2020 6:20:26 AM MT Al****:: GM all-have a good day
Chaos Clinic is posted on AUX page
2/21/2020 2:05:52 AM MT qq:: On Daniel a star the later part of today
9:00 Eastern-System: No comments
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