Chaos Clinic Recap
Here are Al's comments
1:08 I'm calling it quits for the day-no juice; thanks for coming. See you in 2 weeks. Take a course
1:06 stopped for -1.5 ; just no juice
12:58 not much juice -not sure I know what to do with a huge 2 tick profit :)
12:38 stop to 1330.5, trailing by 3 points
12:36 stop to 1331.5
12:33 OK, selling 1329 stop 1332 -not much juice but ...
12:28 have a 20/110 sell, but no juice yet so waiting
12:26 in the trading window - watching for a sell setup with some juice
12:18 seems like all the big guys have moved to the sidelines awaiting the result of the Greek vote on Sunday
12:06 if we closed right here, the weekly 24 hour candlestick would be a bearish Hanging Man
12:01 back-see last minor rally ended
11:36 taking a break for breakfast
11:21 volatility is pathetic
11:13 coming to the 11:18 Tide time -looking like a high
11:02 so much for the shifted MoonTide holding
10:52 seeing lots of little eddies and cross currents-typical of a witching day
10:45 updated my FOP chart in the CCT room
10:37 so far, today is an "MM stinker" - MM is my longest term client. He coined the name for really dull days
10:32 I've never figured out what causes the shift or how to predict it. Is seems to form, then disappear like a cloud dissolving
10:28 sometimes I see that on a two day chart, the MoonTide pattern shifts right or left. I'm still
studying that behavior, so it is still research. FWIW, today on the AUX page I've posted a chart with a 72 minute left shift
getting a hex pattern recognized-see Hex Wheels today and Hex Wheel tutorial linked on right side of
9:55 looking like a flat to down day
9:38 I have placed a Fractal of Pi chart in the Certified Chaos Trader's Room. That room is open
to graduates of my 4 main courses. See http://moneytide.com -> Courses for details.
eMylar Fractal of Pi overlays help you be patient, since they show you future potential moves.
The best bargain in my courses is to take the Cash In On Chaos and Fractal of Pi courses and
learn to use the FOP overlay
9:34 summer Fridays can be very dull-so I often go camping-next weekend is first scheduled trip, so no Chaos Clinic
9:32 outcry session now open - just watching
9:10 for those of you who don't know, a withcing day is a day on which options of a particular expiration month
expire. If three months expire on the same day, it is a triple wiching day, 4 a quad witching day.
9:08 today's trade times are 13:00 and 14:16 , but there may be another opportunity at the
11:18 trade time. See discussion in the chat room re the Quadruple Witching Day.
9:06 Good Morning. Welcome to the Chaos Clinic. This site has a lot of charts,
so you may find it useful to have several of them available within your
browser. If you have a tabbed browser, you can open separate charts
in separate tabs by right clicking on any link, and selecting "open in new tab"
from the menu. The main list of site pages is at
Recommended pages to watch are SPKISS, MTRainbow, and Chat.
For astro stuff, add SPSunMoonMer, Wheel, and Chaos Clinic.
Chaos clinic comments appear at the bottom of the SPKISS, MTRainbow,
and ChaosClinic pages. Comments in the chat room are announced by a
"duck call" noise. This noise also occurs when the sofware detects a
resonant hex pattern on the Wheel page. Trading tutorials
are on the righty side of the ListOfCharts page. One should
read Trading the MoonTide Tutorial and Keep it Simple as a minimum.
Besides the comments made by Al, the chat room is has live
comments from other traders who sometimes share their views,
trades and tips. Below are the chat room comments from this clinic
6/15/2012 12:31:00 PM MT sdg:: Any takers on the spike?
6/15/2012 12:23:00 PM MT srj****:: You could be an Astro guru :-)
6/15/2012 11:55:44 AM MT sdg:: Ah, to be that good, eh!
6/15/2012 11:51:51 AM MT srj****:: @sdg - Oh - OK - I was thinking you meant 4 point move in 4 hours ie at 17:xx :-)
6/15/2012 11:51:47 AM MT sdg:: so 3-4 hours, depending on where you live ;-) likely not take a trade until we bring that range.
6/15/2012 11:49:33 AM MT sdg:: 1327.25 low at 1027, 1331.75 high at 1133, still stuck there
6/15/2012 11:46:52 AM MT srj****:: @sdg - how do you get that?
6/15/2012 11:36:55 AM MT sdg:: 4ish pt range coming up on 4 hours
6/15/2012 11:28:44 AM MT Tg****:: This is like a return to Feb or March.
6/15/2012 11:08:09 AM MT bbb****:: Glad I am traveling today. Good luck y'all.
6/15/2012 10:33:25 AM MT Tg****:: sold 28.75
6/15/2012 8:45:00 AM MT srj****:: @AL - just dropping, in saw your comment re shift in tide times - are you not using some formula to calculate the tide times? if so the shift must be encoded in some of the terms or I must missing something..
6/15/2012 8:36:11 AM MT Tg****:: I haven't seen the sharp reversal in the 20 exma I'm looking for yet. A 20/110 cross within 45 minutes of the top would be a signal I'd go with.
6/15/2012 8:09:27 AM MT sdg:: TG- nice pick-up on the 10:00 time.
6/15/2012 7:26:27 AM MT sdg:: Likely. Working on the IB buttons to have the stop placed with the order. AL..triple and quad witching refers to the number of products hitting expiry.
6/15/2012 7:20:36 AM MT Tg****:: I suppose you can enter your stop loss before you enter the trade. May make a habit of that. Someone out there I'm sure clicked sell at market a 2nd or two before that vertical move and didn't get a stop in place.
6/15/2012 7:16:03 AM MT sdg:: GM all- Tg, I have learned to get the stop in ASAP. As Al put it in one clinic (think I have read most of the them) mental stops are BS.
6/15/2012 7:03:06 AM MT Al****:: Thanks TG-you are a good example of someone who really does their homework
6/15/2012 7:01:43 AM MT Tg****:: Lastly, I'd be skeptical of any 20/110 downside cross early on if price doesn't first make a new high on the 8:15-16:15 chart during the outcry session.
6/15/2012 6:53:21 AM MT Tg****:: Even though Al's software didn't choose it, I would suspect that the early tide time or 10:00 vertical moon line will come into play. Unless volatility has been poor, not the case lately, there is usually a good morning move.
6/15/2012 6:49:15 AM MT Tg****:: Witching day is appropriate terminology as there are a often witches-hat type formations.
6/15/2012 6:47:04 AM MT Tg****:: I spent a few hours today looking back at the past several years worth of witching days. The initial trend in the 110 exma (on your 8:15-16:15 chart) is almost always reversed pretty decently at some point during the morning session so odds are against a continuation buy, or if there is a continuation buy this morning it probably won't last for too long before a sharp reversal comes. A good kink in the 20 exma off of a top or secondary top is often a good signal but there is the potential for noisy short lived throwovers of about a point or so, thus if you try to get in early, you'd have to be willing to use a fairly wide stop maybe 1.5 points above the morning session high. Once price travels from one OOB level to the other, moves are usually over, could get a second decent reversal around noon to solar noon. Latter afternoon is usually crap.
6/15/2012 6:34:49 AM MT Tg****:: Yesterday, I was skeptical of the decline underway through the last tide time and was in the process of entering a buy stop just above the last minor high at 1317 when price went vertical. So missed that one which stinks but could you imagine the guy that went short a few seconds before that move that didn't get his stop loss in place in time. There is an "exit at market and cancel all orders" button to click on but you might fumble the mouse about while going for it.
6/15/2012 6:29:03 AM MT Al****:: TG-do you have a typical scenario for quad witching days?
6/15/2012 6:08:25 AM MT Al****:: interesting name, since the distribution of returns in a chaotic market is not a bell curve but a witches hat with a very wide brim
6/15/2012 5:55:37 AM MT Tg****:: GM Al, MM, BBB and everyone else. Happy Quad Witching Day.
6/15/2012 5:49:26 AM MT Al****:: GM all-good luck today
6/15/2012 5:44:49 AM MT mm****:: gm all - have a great day
9:00 Eastern-System: No comments
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