The Russell Turns Down
     Chaos Clinic for 11/1/2019
While the S&P made a marginal new high this week, due to "waiting for the fed".
the broader market, measured by the Russell Index, looks to have turned down.

This 8 hour bar chart of the RTY futures shows the pattern.

From a late August low, RTY rallied 154 ponts in 19 calendar days, for a
rate of 8.1 points per day. From there it dropped into a double bottom in
early October. The lows were 39 and 45 days from the August lows.
Into the 10/9 low, the drop was 135 points, 3/8th of a circle. Forty five
days is 1/8th of a circle.

From the second October low, RTU rallied 117 point in 20 days, for a rate
of 5.8 points per day, significantly slower than the prior rally. The high
came on 10/29, the first day of the FOMC meeting. On the second day of the
FOMC meeting, RTY behave much weaker than the S&P intraday. The high was
46 days from the 9/13 high. and lower. That suggested the possibility
of a major turn.

To help indentify turns, I use a rainbow of EXMAs. Here I'm using
2,6.12,24,and 48 day EXMAs. On major turns, they will turn successively.
So the first indication of a turn will be the 2 and 6 day turning.
They have done so as of the 10/31 close. The other EXMAs need to turn
down as the turn develops, to confirm that this is a major turn.

If it is, there are several ways to project time and price of the decline.

A 45 day decline would run into mid December, a 60 day into the end of
the year, and a 120 day into the end of January. These are just harmonic
parts of a circle.

The pattern could be the first two moves of 7 in a down Chaos Clamshell.
Projecting these moves forward gives 2/17/2020.

Price targets can similarly be projected. A simple ABC C=A projections
targets 1450. A typical Butterfly 1.27 extention gives 1430.
A 180 degree drop gives 1399, while a 1.618 Fibonacci extention
gives 1389. Finally, a typical Chaos Clamshell targets 1283, which
happens to be a drop of 315 points, 7/8th of a circle.

Trading has no guarantees. There are only possibilities, probabilities,
risks, and rewards. A trader who recognized this pattern on the 10/30
close, could have sold the close with a stop above the high.
Given the potential gain, this is a small risk.

For more on my work, see

Below is one of the SPKISS charts from
and the chat room comments from this Chaos Clinic. Most recent comment is on top.

11/1/2019 1:29:43 PM MT Al****:: have a good weekend every one
11/1/2019 1:29:01 PM MT qq:: Holding puts bought minutes ago over weekend. From Cobra blog a good post on $NADNV:$NATOT peaks saying "High success rate, fave signal, sometimes good for a day or two, sometimes more. SELL"
11/1/2019 1:22:27 PM MT Al****:: aborted for +.50 -wow
11/1/2019 1:16:45 PM MT Al****:: I'm only trying to hold long into the close
Monday can wait
11/1/2019 1:14:44 PM MT qq:: For now following SP3XGO. Down Monday on red tide?
11/1/2019 12:59:15 PM MT Al****:: it's not over until it is over
11/1/2019 12:34:45 PM MT qq:: And also looks to be for now following Chaos red.
11/1/2019 12:33:46 PM MT qq:: We're NEVER going down again! Maybe that will tempt it to go down. Seems to be following SPKISS green tide.
11/1/2019 12:29:41 PM MT Al****:: move getting st4ronger-did not pull back to 220
11/1/2019 11:48:11 AM MT Al****:: I am only treating this as a day trade; too many cycle occur over the weekend
11/1/2019 11:43:37 AM MT Al****:: R2/R3 3068 is where Flash Boys may cover
11/1/2019 11:40:26 AM MT Al****:: third chart on SPKISS page shows a continuation buy
11/1/2019 11:18:13 AM MT Al****:: found support on 220 EXMA
11/1/2019 11:01:27 AM MT Al****:: not so good a fit -still looks weak to me
11/1/2019 10:14:19 AM MT Al****:: check SPKISS page green +Tide
11/1/2019 9:53:33 AM MT AN:: Top for the DOW should be the first week of December 2019 Uranus Satrun will have moved about 16 degrees relative to the last top.
11/1/2019 9:00:45 AM MT Al****:: following green +Tide so far. If it holds may get PM decline
11/1/2019 8:53:33 AM MT pst:: I don't like the feeling of this market. Not worth the risk staying overnight.
11/1/2019 7:43:46 AM MT AN:: Hello Al really impressed with your work. I peeked in last week where you mentioned the fingernail moon, sadly it did not work. Where is the top I wonder?
11/1/2019 7:35:03 AM MT qq:: Thanks Al
11/1/2019 7:34:31 AM MT Al****:: maybe, too soon to tell
11/1/2019 7:30:38 AM MT qq:: A butterfly pattern on AUX?
11/1/2019 6:54:48 AM MT Ted:: Prosperity to you all!
11/1/2019 6:38:59 AM MT jvj****:: Good Morning Everyone.
11/1/2019 5:33:29 AM MT Al****:: GM all. Good luck today. Chaos Clinic posted on the AUX page

9:00 Eastern-System: No comments

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