********************************************************************************
The Russell Turns Down
Chaos Clinic for 11/1/2019
********************************************************************************
While the S&P made a marginal new high this week, due to "waiting for the fed".
the broader market, measured by the Russell Index, looks to have turned down.
This 8 hour bar chart of the RTY futures shows the pattern.
From a late August low, RTY rallied 154 ponts in 19 calendar days, for a
rate of 8.1 points per day. From there it dropped into a double bottom in
early October. The lows were 39 and 45 days from the August lows.
Into the 10/9 low, the drop was 135 points, 3/8th of a circle. Forty five
days is 1/8th of a circle.
From the second October low, RTU rallied 117 point in 20 days, for a rate
of 5.8 points per day, significantly slower than the prior rally. The high
came on 10/29, the first day of the FOMC meeting. On the second day of the
FOMC meeting, RTY behave much weaker than the S&P intraday. The high was
46 days from the 9/13 high. and lower. That suggested the possibility
of a major turn.
To help indentify turns, I use a rainbow of EXMAs. Here I'm using
2,6.12,24,and 48 day EXMAs. On major turns, they will turn successively.
So the first indication of a turn will be the 2 and 6 day turning.
They have done so as of the 10/31 close. The other EXMAs need to turn
down as the turn develops, to confirm that this is a major turn.
If it is, there are several ways to project time and price of the decline.
A 45 day decline would run into mid December, a 60 day into the end of
the year, and a 120 day into the end of January. These are just harmonic
parts of a circle.
The pattern could be the first two moves of 7 in a down Chaos Clamshell.
Projecting these moves forward gives 2/17/2020.
Price targets can similarly be projected. A simple ABC C=A projections
targets 1450. A typical Butterfly 1.27 extention gives 1430.
A 180 degree drop gives 1399, while a 1.618 Fibonacci extention
gives 1389. Finally, a typical Chaos Clamshell targets 1283, which
happens to be a drop of 315 points, 7/8th of a circle.
Trading has no guarantees. There are only possibilities, probabilities,
risks, and rewards. A trader who recognized this pattern on the 10/30
close, could have sold the close with a stop above the high.
Given the potential gain, this is a small risk.
For more on my work, see Moneytide.com
11/1/2019 1:29:43 PM MT Al****:: have a good weekend every one
11/1/2019 1:29:01 PM MT qq:: Holding puts bought minutes ago over weekend. From Cobra blog a good post on $NADNV:$NATOT peaks saying "High success rate, fave signal, sometimes good for a day or two, sometimes more. SELL"
11/1/2019 1:22:27 PM MT Al****:: aborted for +.50 -wow
11/1/2019 1:16:45 PM MT Al****:: I'm only trying to hold long into the close
Monday can wait
11/1/2019 1:14:44 PM MT qq:: For now following SP3XGO. Down Monday on red tide?
11/1/2019 12:59:15 PM MT Al****:: it's not over until it is over
11/1/2019 12:34:45 PM MT qq:: And also looks to be for now following Chaos red.
11/1/2019 12:33:46 PM MT qq:: We're NEVER going down again! Maybe that will tempt it to go down. Seems to be following SPKISS green tide.
11/1/2019 12:29:41 PM MT Al****:: move getting st4ronger-did not pull back to 220
11/1/2019 11:48:11 AM MT Al****:: I am only treating this as a day trade; too many cycle occur over the weekend
11/1/2019 11:43:37 AM MT Al****:: R2/R3 3068 is where Flash Boys may cover
11/1/2019 11:40:26 AM MT Al****:: third chart on SPKISS page shows a continuation buy
11/1/2019 11:18:13 AM MT Al****:: found support on 220 EXMA
11/1/2019 11:01:27 AM MT Al****:: not so good a fit -still looks weak to me
11/1/2019 10:14:19 AM MT Al****:: check SPKISS page green +Tide
11/1/2019 9:53:33 AM MT AN:: Top for the DOW should be the first week of December 2019 Uranus Satrun will have moved about 16 degrees relative to the last top.
11/1/2019 9:00:45 AM MT Al****:: following green +Tide so far. If it holds may get PM decline
11/1/2019 8:53:33 AM MT pst:: I don't like the feeling of this market. Not worth the risk staying overnight.
11/1/2019 7:43:46 AM MT AN:: Hello Al really impressed with your work. I peeked in last week where you mentioned the fingernail moon, sadly it did not work. Where is the top I wonder?
11/1/2019 7:35:03 AM MT qq:: Thanks Al
11/1/2019 7:34:31 AM MT Al****:: maybe, too soon to tell
11/1/2019 7:30:38 AM MT qq:: A butterfly pattern on AUX?
11/1/2019 6:54:48 AM MT Ted:: Prosperity to you all!
11/1/2019 6:38:59 AM MT jvj****:: Good Morning Everyone.
11/1/2019 5:33:29 AM MT Al****:: GM all. Good luck today. Chaos Clinic posted on the AUX page
9:00 Eastern-System: No comments