Chaos Clinic Recap
Here are Al's comments
Long Term Chaos Clamshell in the S&P
Chaos Clinic for 5/17/2019
Since I discovered the Chaos Clamshell pattern in 1990, I have
found it to be a most useful pattern for trading. In it's basic
form, it is a 7 move complex zig-zag. It shows up on charts ranging
from one minute bar charts, to daily, weekly, and even monthly.
This chart shows the S&P Exchange Traded Fund, SPY since its inception,
on a monthly chart. It starts out with moves 1, 2, 3, and 4, forming a base.
Move 4 was the Great Recession.
Move 5 is usually the biggest and fastest move. This is true of the SPY
which has risen in a ten year super bull market. Now it looks like that
bull is dead.
In 2018, the S&P make two distinct tops. It has now make a slightly higher top
in 2019. This has formed the pattern traders call "Three drives to a top."
It is one of the most reliable patterns signaling the end of a move.
Move 6 and 7 follow move 5. One way to estimate move 6 is to project it as
a duplicate of move 2 or 4. That is shown on this chart. It suggests prices
in SPY pulling back to 200-220. In the S&P futures, that is 2000-2200.
On my website there is a free course called "Trading The Chaos Clamshell."
A link to it is on my
page at Moneytide.com
Besides the comments made by Al, the chat room has live
comments from other traders who sometimes share their views,
trades and tips. Below are the chat room comments from this clinic
5/17/2019 2:00:18 PM MT MJ:: Thanks Al
5/17/2019 1:58:13 PM MT Al****:: I:'m done-have a good weekend all-thanks for coming-take some courses
5/17/2019 1:55:32 PM MT ff:: With IMAGINARY money I've gone long over the week-end.
5/17/2019 1:55:11 PM MT Al****:: me too-I sold 77 covered for +15;I use another account for longer term
5/17/2019 1:49:03 PM MT ff:: I've decided not to hold anything over the weekend.
5/17/2019 1:42:43 PM MT Al****:: For FOG use the emylar overlay and constantly look at highs and lows-I recommend getting the flash drive version of the patterns once you are a CCT
5/17/2019 1:40:30 PM MT Al****:: the charts I post in the CCT Rooms are all continuing examples; be sure to look at them
5/17/2019 1:39:05 PM MT Al****:: I thought that's what the course was :)
5/17/2019 1:33:05 PM MT BOG****:: Hi Dr Al, I bought the FOP and FOG course but I do not know how to use them and when to u them. Please could you do a tutorial on how to use them? Thanks.
5/17/2019 1:29:19 PM MT Al****:: at the bottom of the Secret->esNat360 chart is a Volatiliy forecast
sometimes, but not always, it looks like the price pattern
5/17/2019 1:11:49 PM MT Al****:: SH looks good fo swing trade , this trade looks good for day trade, fun to Cash In On Chaos
5/17/2019 1:06:17 PM MT Al****:: just had to get past those two vertical lines on Secret->esNat72
5/17/2019 1:02:50 PM MT Al****:: QED
5/17/2019 1:02:44 PM MT MJ:: Top marks Al today your turns were magic mate absolutely magic
5/17/2019 1:01:42 PM MT Al****:: patience
5/17/2019 12:52:54 PM MT MJ:: I hope that red swan does not turn into a turkey!
5/17/2019 12:51:33 PM MT ff:: A little lift off VWAP using 1 minute chart
5/17/2019 12:37:10 PM MT ff:: Touching VWAP line Vol Weighted Average price
5/17/2019 12:35:13 PM MT Al****:: for longer term traders, look at the SH ETF
5/17/2019 12:33:22 PM MT Al****:: rolling over;here comes the whoosh
5/17/2019 12:18:46 PM MT Al****:: swans are explained on the page MoonTides and Black Swans, linked on the top right side of the ListOfCharts page
5/17/2019 12:14:20 PM MT ss:: what is a red swan please, ty
5/17/2019 12:12:49 PM MT Al****:: the Chaos Clinic chart has a red swan down here
5/17/2019 12:11:25 PM MT ff:: Price dipping towards Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
5/17/2019 12:07:29 PM MT ff:: I might hold a short over the weekend.
5/17/2019 12:06:50 PM MT ff:: Almost thought Memorial Day on Monday when I saw flags being put out. Guess they want them out early for Monday, May 27.
5/17/2019 11:59:20 AM MT Al****:: I don't think many traders would want to hold long over this weekend
5/17/2019 11:53:59 AM MT Al****:: today's daily candlestick is a bearish spinning top
5/17/2019 11:42:37 AM MT Al****:: I think we're just waiting to get past those two vertical lines on Secret->esNat72
5/17/2019 11:32:22 AM MT ff:: Thanks Al - will do
5/17/2019 11:27:44 AM MT Al****:: hang in there ff-it's not over yet
5/17/2019 11:20:06 AM MT ff:: Rats. Set my trailing stop too close and got stopped out while it was still moving up. At least I made a little.
5/17/2019 11:06:52 AM MT ff:: Sure wish it could percolate again through the current pivot.
5/17/2019 11:05:42 AM MT Al****:: ska: I'm not sure what XTide2Plus is doing-
only Certified Chaos Traders can visit the CCT Room
because all the charts there are protected by non-disclosure agreements
That's how I try to protect my intellectual property
and your investment in my courses
5/17/2019 10:59:53 AM MT ska:: We cannot go to cct room corredt ?
5/17/2019 10:59:14 AM MT ska:: AL
xtide chart did it have inversion yesterday ?
5/17/2019 10:34:52 AM MT Al****:: I posted a 3rd FOG chart in the CCT Room
5/17/2019 10:16:40 AM MT Al****:: BOG-yes 8 hr spice charts are on the websit-they run from 8:15AM to 2:15 PM Eastern time
5/17/2019 10:11:17 AM MT MJ:: Its alright Al you did say long, I posted your comment below, I just could not believe it.
5/17/2019 10:07:05 AM MT Al****:: I didn't say long ff-at least I don't think I did-I did sell the high based on my FOG pattern
5/17/2019 9:56:51 AM MT MJ:: Thanks MJ. I might amend that plan to mostly short at end of day if the market looks peaked. Also, if this dip continues a little I might jump in for some long.
Do you really mean long AL??? if we have a 7 wave and the top of 7 failed to pass 5, would not that be a short. P.S I took your first course.
5/17/2019 9:56:39 AM MT Al****:: that high showed up nicely on a FOG chart-I posted it in the CCT Room
5/17/2019 9:45:04 AM MT ff:: Thanks MJ. I might amend that plan to mostly short at end of day if the market looks peaked. Also, if this dip continues a little I might jump in for some long.
5/17/2019 9:44:15 AM MT Al****:: That makes a lower high from yesterday and 7 swings up from the Tuesday low
5/17/2019 9:41:17 AM MT Al****:: high was on green +Tide turn
5/17/2019 9:40:48 AM MT MJ:: Very cool Al very cool
5/17/2019 9:37:04 AM MT Al****:: checkout the SPSunMoonMer chart
5/17/2019 9:34:52 AM MT Al****:: it's a little late but peak was on a Tide time
5/17/2019 9:29:12 AM MT MJ:: Al you might get your 11 am turn around, lots of churn volume here
5/17/2019 9:21:37 AM MT BOG****:: Dr Al please what is 8hr splice chart? Is it on the website? Thanks
5/17/2019 9:18:48 AM MT MJ:: Thing is if you wait till Monday you usually miss the move as Trump will often say something after the markets are closed. The last fall we had was right on a 90 day count one of ganns specials. The last 2 falls came on a Friday
5/17/2019 9:13:28 AM MT ff:: Too be on the safe side I might mostly wait until Monday morning to short.
5/17/2019 9:11:40 AM MT ff:: Thanks RVB. Went out for a while thinking noting much would happen. SURPRISE. I do not feel the urge to chase it up at this stage. Now looking for a possible short near the end of the day. Stock Traders Almanac shows Monday as Bearish. And XTides Plus show possible down movement.
5/17/2019 9:09:14 AM MT MJ:: Should break yesterdays top, 2900 is a key level 2909.78 could be a good supply level
5/17/2019 9:05:32 AM MT rvb****:: ff you have been right on top of the S&P today. Good job
5/17/2019 8:16:02 AM MT ff:: I wonder. Could price percolate underneath 2865/66 until breaking through it later?
5/17/2019 8:03:29 AM MT Al****:: I'll check it
5/17/2019 8:00:50 AM MT gon:: Just a remark Al, the auto-response email after purchasing the XGO chart contains just an explanatory text file attached, not the actual XGO charts. I remember last time you had to send them to me in a another email.
5/17/2019 7:45:18 AM MT ff:: Will the rally be sold to test the low - that's the question?
5/17/2019 7:36:27 AM MT Al****:: on 24 hour charts prices are about where they started the week
5/17/2019 7:29:43 AM MT ff:: I'm now guessing dead in the morning, give time for a tug of war of who will win.
5/17/2019 7:27:02 AM MT Al****:: today may be as dead as last Friday was wild
5/17/2019 7:18:54 AM MT :: GM all.
5/17/2019 7:13:28 AM MT Al****:: ff: thanks for your early comment. I was short overnight in the Russel RTY. Your comment and my FOG pattern encouraged me to cover.
5/17/2019 7:11:15 AM MT Al****:: Thanks GON
5/17/2019 7:09:01 AM MT gon:: All right, here it is: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/long-term-chaos-clamshell-in-the-sp500-201905171308 Many thanks!
5/17/2019 7:04:24 AM MT Al****:: I have placed a Face Of God chart in the Certified Chaos Trader's Room. That room is open
to graduates of my 4 main courses. See http://moneytide.com -> Courses for details.
eMylar Fractal of Pi overlays help you be patient, since they show you future potential moves.
The best bargain in my courses is to take the Cash In On Chaos and Fractal of Pi courses and
learn to use the FOP overlay. Then take Chaos Trading Made Easy, and finish with Face Of God.
5/17/2019 6:49:07 AM MT Al****:: ss: the hex alerts are not necessarily trade signals-there is a tutorial on what they are linked on the right side of the ListOfCharts page, as well as a link to Hex Wheels Today
5/17/2019 6:47:08 AM MT Al****:: GON, yes, publish it because it is an update
5/17/2019 6:45:55 AM MT gon:: Btw, I just bought an XGO chart with my personal data, it was very usefull to have it in the past. Thanks!
5/17/2019 6:39:46 AM MT ss:: I saw an alert 2853.75 Hex...is that a buy point?
5/17/2019 6:36:57 AM MT gon:: Hi Al, good morning! Do you wish us to publish the AUX content on fxstreet.com as usuall? I ask you this because you already have an article with the same chart and similar outlook published in December.
5/17/2019 6:31:25 AM MT Al****:: this is a "gap down" day on my spliced 8 hour per day charts
It often has the pattern "Gap down, sell a high near 11:00"
that would fit with the green +Tide
5/17/2019 6:03:09 AM MT Al****:: GM all-good luck today. Chaos Clinic is posted on the AUX page.
5/17/2019 5:52:28 AM MT ff:: My gut filling is that we will open near the start of yesterdays open and go gradually and faster up the rest of the day.
9:00 Eastern-System: No comments
[ Live Clinics on Friday on DaytradingForecasts.com ]